The Illusion of Control

Most of life’s big moments can be marked on the calendar in anticipation. Birthdays, graduations, weddings, Star Wars movie releases. The dates are set and you can then count the moments until the event arrives. In stark contrast is the birth of my first child.

We are currently awaiting Pumkin’s arrival on a “really any day now” basis. Oh, we’ve still got two weeks until the official due date, but the doctor has finally confirmed our long-held belief that we’re probably not going to make it that long. Moonshot and I have prepared the nursery, ordered the diaper service, packed up what hospital necessities we can and made a list of the items we can’t pack just yet. We’ve made arrangements for Arlo’s care during the birth and we’ve stockpiled food in the downstairs freezer for use during those hectic first days. We’ve been going back over our notes from the childbirth classes and are basically trying to get ourselves as ready as possible for the big event. The only problem is…we have no control over the timing. Unlike the above listed events, this one…possibly my biggest life altering event since my own birth and until my own death…and I have no idea when it will occur. If only I could talk to the me of one month future…or forty years future for that matter since the date will almost certainly float significantly in my memory for the rest of my life. But for now, the date looms out there…unwilling to give up its position.

This sort of waiting is torture for a control freak like me. It’s probably good for me to suffer through it…but it makes me a bit batty. I’ve been having recurring dreams that Moonshot and I know that “today” is the day. I’ve never dreamed of the birth or even of the child him or herself. I just dream that I somehow know that it will happen “today”…and it is a wonderful dream.

Given my inability to control these events, I’ve turned to my old friend logic to help me through. If I can’t know, at least I can crunch the numbers.

Here’s what I know:

• The official due date isn’t until August 1, but that’s a bit suspect. It’s based on the idea that conception TENDS to occur midway through the menstrual cycle. So, they basically count from the last day of the last period, assume that conception occurred two weeks after that, and spit out a date. But I don’t trust that assumption. Coming off birth control had massively screwed up Moonshot’s cycle during that time. I wouldn’t take for granted that anything about her cycle at that time would conform to statistical norm.



• The ultrasound technician predicted a due date of July 26th based on Pumkin’s size back in March. That’s about one week ahead of schedule and perfectly reasonable given the above-mentioned menstrual chaos.



• At every check-up, the doctor measures Moonshot’s belly and it consistently shows up one week ahead of schedule based on size.



• As mentioned, the doctor finally agreed that we probably won’t make it to Aug 1.

Based on these facts, I’m pretty comfortable assuming a REAL due date on July 26th.

But even that doesn’t truly answer the question. Because, even a corrected due date is still just statistics and probability. What’s a neurotic guy to do in the face of such uncertainty? Well, if you’re me, you turn to your trusty Excel spreadsheets, generate overly complex calculations, and consequently get mocked by your wife.

To get started, I had to make some assumption. First, I assumed that as of our last check-up on July 13th, we had an approximately 75% chance of delivering before August 1. This is clearly a shot in the dark, but that’s what I read between the lines in the doctor’s vague prediction…so that’s what my spreadsheet reflected. I then assigned a number between 1 and 6 for each day between July 14th and the day the doctor would induce labor, August 15th. These numbers indicate the relative likelihood of a birth on that date and they basically stair step their way to a 6 on July 26th and then stair step their way back down. The spreadsheet then calculates these numbers into percentages for each day. It also automatically changes the probability to zero for days that have passed and recalculates the odds for future days given the ever decreasing date possibilities. It’s all very slick and it gave my whirling brain a way to feel like it was doing something, but in the end, it doesn’t really answer many questions. For instance, as I write this there is a 2.08% chance that Pumkin will make his/her grand appearance today. That’s tiny. Basically, right now, any given day has only a miniscule chance since there are so many possible dates. How frustrating! But, I suppose it’s slightly more meaningful to note that there is a 22.92% chance that Pumkin will be born this week.

I know, I know...I should be enjoying these anticipatory moments instead of codifying them into basically meaningless number crunching exercises. But, to some small extent it helps to pretend I have some control over the situation through prediction. And besides…we’re sort of just killing time until Pumkin comes out to play anyway. So while Moonshot reads her kinky Laurell K. Hamilton novels, I’ll spend some time hiding my nervousness by making up probabilities. There are less healthy responses, I suppose. I may not be able to mark a day on the calendar and count the moments, but I say if I can enjoy the random roll of the dice by imagining that I understand the odds…thank heavens for Microsoft Excel.

Note: For those of you who want to play along on the Neurotic Moksha Home Game…feel free to take a look at or download the spreadsheet.

Caleb Vs. Norah

Given the discussion above, perhaps it’s odd that I’m really enjoying the mystery of Pumkin’s gender. I’m looking forward to finding out, don’t get me wrong, but since I’m not really partial either way, I’m very comfortable to wait until Pumkin is born to discover if Pumkin is a Norah or a Caleb. However, what fun would a mystery be without some completely random predictions from everyone we know? So, I invite you all to make your completely random predictions in the comments. I mean, you’ve got a fifty percent chance of having undeniable proof that you knew it all along. Them’s good odds. Moonshot has been telling me for some time that her intuition tells her it’s a Norah. Therefore, based on nothing but my desire for healthy competition, I’m banking my fatherly intuition on a Caleb. Anybody else wanna lock in your vote while the truth is still masked in secrecy?